Bad Boys For Life & 1917 Shooting Past $100M; The Turning Slammed With Second F Of 2020 – Deadline

3RD UPDATE, Friday PM Writethru following midday update: Who says January stinks at the box office?

Sonys Bad Boys for Life and Universal-Amblin-New Republics1917are poised to fly past the $100M mark this weekend, becoming 2020s first two century-grossing titles at the domestic box office.

Bad Boys for Life should cross some time on Saturday with its second-Friday estimate now near $9M, -62%. The total for its second weekend at No. 1 is higher than what we spotted on Friday afternoon now at $33M, -47%, for an estimated running total by Sunday of $119.6M. Soon enough, the threequel will passBad Boys IIs domestic final of $138.6M in 2003.

1917is spotting a second-place finish in its third wide weekend, fifth overall (Uni did spike screens by 325), with $4M on Friday, -35% from a week ago, and $15M, -33%, for the three-day, which would put its total at $103.1M.

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Its a bittersweet weekend business wise: Theres the Will Smith and Martin Lawrence renaissance going on, plus the boom of Sam Mendes Oscar contender.

But then theres this weekends entries which are meh -STXs The Gentleman and blah Universal/DreamWorks The Turning, which reps the second horror film of 2020 to get a F CinemaScore after Sonys The Grudge. On the upside for the box office, there isnt a freeze out going on like Storm Jonas four years ago which closed down a bulk of theaters in the Northeast, impacting ticket sales greatly.

On the downside, the holiday box office stretch from Christmas to MLK is officially over with most kids back in school today per Comscore (3% K-12 off and 7% colleges on break). Things dont get better until Valentines Day/Presidents Day weekend, when 90% K-12 and 32% colleges will be on break. By Sunday, Disneys Star Wars: The Rise of Skywalker will have finally broken the half billion threshold stateside.

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STXs wide entry The Gentlemen is coming in right around where tracking figured it to be with an estimated $3.7M (including last nights $725K previews) and $10M start. Its an OK result, lets hope it doesnt sink lower. Right now, Gentlemen is being pushed to 4th place by Dolittle which moves up to 3rd with a $11.3M second weekend (-48%). Some of Gentlemens money here is obviously being stolen away by Bad Boys for Life (Yes! Both older male crowd films, duh).STX and the filmmakers argue profit in the long run, and some rival sources dont necessarily disagree with that because at the end of the day, the film is your run-of-the-mill meat and potatoes low budget action film for dudes and those movies do well in the ancillary market. Despite being casted up, The Gentlemens weekend is coming in below STXscaper Den of Thieves from two Januarys ago ($15.2M) and that only had one star, Gerard Butler. Also the reviews for Thieves was lower at 41% Rotten despite Gentlemens 71% fresh.

The Gentlemens U.S. rights were picked up by STX for $7M with P&A estimates around $25M which is right for a wide release of this type. Within these parameters, sources tell me STX should be fine.

Updated audience exits on Friday night from Comscore/Screen Engines PostTrak were average at 3 1/2 stars and a 48% definite recommend. Guys over 25 were first at 48% of the audience, followed by females over 25 at 33%, with men under 25 at 12%, and females under 25 at 7%. Guys love it more than females, 82% to 72%. CinemaScore for The Gentlemenwas better at B+, which is higher than Guy RichiesSnatch(B).

Some keep comparingGentlemens numbers to A24s wide break of Uncut Gems ($9.5M), probably because both films pulled in guys overall (Uncut Gems with 65% vs. Gentlemens 64%). However, both movies are really apples and oranges in regards to their box office trajectory. Even though Uncut Gemsdidnt make it into the Oscar conversation, it was able to juice its B.O. off some great pre-awards gas propelled by excellent reviews for a role we havent seen Adam Sandler in before (91% certified fresh), and a great platform (the 2nd best opening weekend average of 2019 with $107,4K) that further capitalized on the post Christmas period. With close to $47M,Uncut Gems is A24s second-highest grossing movie with close to $47M behind Lady Bird (just under $49M).The Gentlemenisnt benefiting from any holiday play period.

RelishMix was impressed by the social media universe accrued here byThe Gentlemenwith 104M followers (broken down thats5.6M Facebook fans, 39.5M Facebook video views, 3.4M Twitter followers, 51M YouTube views and 4.5M Instagram followers), ahead of the typical action/comedy which counts 82.8M by opening week.

Reports RelishMix: For January releases, studios offer a quick and simple campaign and STXs Gentlemen is no exception. The first trailer dropped in early October, and with very few materials released in between then and mid-December, the bulk of the campaign was only a month long. To that end, the film is succeeding on average daily YouTube views of 23.4K for top clips (just ahead of the benchmark 22.1K). While some of these views are indeed driven by paid STX buys, the consensus seems to be that fans are liking Ritchies return to the gangster genre that made him an internationally renown director.

On the downside RelishMix notices the online chatter, There are some who dont like these types of movies to begin with. These folks dont like violence, but they cant understand the characters dialogue which is a real two-edged sword for fans who adore these elements of Ritchies films. Speaking of two-edged swords, there are fans who say theyll avoid it because of Hugh Grant and other individual cast members who they feel just dont belong in this kind of action/comedy romp.

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Old fashioned whodunits like Knives Out work at the box office, but old fashioned horror movies like Guillermo del Toros Crimson Peak and DreamWorks/Universals PG-13 The Turning this weekend, not so much. Despite DreamWorks keeping this genre pics cost in the low teens before P&A, the pic is dead on arrival with $6.6M in 6th place and a 1/2 star on PostTrak. This is the second horror movie after Black Christmas($4.2M opening, $10.4M final) to die on Unis watch. Critics turned their backs on Turningwith an 18% RT score. Friday night PostTrak logged a 26% definite recommend, and an overall 41% total positive (which isnt positive at all). Those who braved this pic were 29% females under 25, 25% males under 25, 24% males over 25, and 22% females over 25.

Says RelishMix, The campaign for this thriller with horror elements was very straight forward and rather brief (probably because the studio knew it was so bad). The first and only trailer from debuted in early October. The film has Stranger Things Finn Wolfhard, who was only activated in the last several days and the non-social Mackenzie Davis.

Add the social media analytics corp about Turnings death, The mixed discussion for this drama/thriller bordering on horror genre is most certainly leaning negative. While the volume of discussion is light no doubt related to the few materials shared, the consensus is one of disbelief. Sure there is a target audience that kind of likes watching creepy kids in a spooky house. But, this contingent is in the minority as most feel the casting feels off and the scares are unbelievable.

Industry estimates:

FIRST UPDATE, 7:41AM: Despite older guys indulging greatly in Will Smith and Martin Lawrences reteam in Bad Boy for Life last weekend, STX and Miramax are hoping that theres a little bit of spillover from that into Guy Ritchies R-rated all-star ensemble The Gentlemen.

STX took U.S. rights from Miramax for $7M, and the hope is that the pic can clear $10M-$12M. STX opened the Gerard Butler caperDen of Thievesto $15.2M two Januarys ago, and it finaled at just under $45M (which the distrib always has said was a success). No question, Sonys Bad Boys for Life will dominate its second frame with around $28M, -55%. Of course, the threequel was the big guy at the B.O. Thursday with $3.5M, -4% from Wednesday, ending its week with an estimated $86.6M.

Last night, The Gentlemen,which is a throwback to Ritchies gritty Brit shoot-em-ups, made $725K at 1,885 theaters, in line with other guy-centric action pics like Warner Bros. Russell Crowe-Ryan Gosling 70s rompThe Nice Guys, which posted $700K on its preview night in 2016 and opened to $11.2M. Gentlemen is booked at 2,165 sites. The pic stars Matthew McConaughey, Charlie Hunnam, Hugh Grant, Michelle Dockery, Jeremy Strong, Colin Farrell, Henry Golding and others in a story about a British drug lord who tries to sell his empire off to Oklahoma billionaires.

The Gentlemen Trailer: Matthew McConaughey, Hugh Grant, Charlie Hunnam & Colin Farrell Are Caught Up In The Wild Sale Of A Drug Empire

Other comparative titles to Gentlemen include STXs Jackie Chan movie The Foreigner, which did $775k during its Thursday previews ahead of a $13.1M opening in 2017; Lionsgates Liam Neeson movie Cold Pursuit, which generated $540k on Thursday last year before a $11M debut; and STXs Peppermint, which took in $800K before opening to $13.4M in 2018.

Universal has the PG-13 DreamWorks horror pic The Turningin the mix, which also is hoping to do around $10M at 2,571 theaters. The pic posted $425K at 2,200 locations Thursday night from showtimes that began at 7 PM. The Turning,directed by Floria Sigismondi, follows a young governess who is hired by a man who has become responsible for his young nephew and niece after their parents deaths. The Turningis billed as a modern take on Henry James novella The Turn of the Screw.

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Bad Boys For Life & 1917 Shooting Past $100M; The Turning Slammed With Second F Of 2020 - Deadline

Reviewed and Recommended by Erik Baquero