3rd Update Friday PM: Sonys third weekend ofBad Boys for Life will easily defeat both new wide entries, Orion/UARs Gretel & Hanseland Paramount/IM Global/EonsThe Rhythm Section, with an estimated $17.7M, -48%. Not only that but holdovers such as Universal/Amblins 1917 and Unis Dr. Dolittle are also whipping the new competition in the second and third spots with $9.8M and $8.2M, respectively.
Last year repped the lowest Super Bowl weekend in 19 years at the box office with $75M, after 2000s $66.3M weekend. This years Super Bowl weekend looks to be up 9% with $81.4M per our estimates. 2008 remains the banner B.O. year as far as Super Bowl weekend goes with $128M propelled by Miley Cyrus Hannah Montanaconcert movie, which at $31M, remains the top opener for the frame. On the downside, grosses are so low this weekend, that its a close race between spots 4 through 6 and spots 8 & 9.
Right now, Orion/UARsGretel & Hansel is in 4th with $6.1M over three days while Blake Livelys The Rhythm Section is tied for 8th with Little Women (in weekend 6) with$3.1M. As several execs have griped to me: You cant beat the Rotten Tomatoes scores on either wide entry (56% and 30% Rotten, respectively). For all the hell we give to STX, they at least opened Guy Ritchies The Gentlemen to a good $10.65M last weekend, higher than what these studios are opening their movies to. Not to mention, Gentlemenis having a good hold of -44% in weekend 2 with $5.9M.
Big win here for Will Smiths box office prowess (especially in the wake of the disastrous The Gemini Man) with three consecutive No. 1 weekends Bad Boys for Life.HisAladdinlast summer held No. 1 for two weekends, en route to becoming Smiths highest-grossing movie of all time with $1.05 billion WW. Bad Boys for Lifeby Saturday will bestBad Boys II($138.6M) and should reach $148Mby Sunday. Smith was a producer on Bad Boys for Life as well. A couple of other details I should add that I forgot to include in my first write-up about the threequel: former Sony exec-turned producer Doug Belgrad was really key in pushingBad Boys 3 through the Culver City studio throughout the years. Not only did his 2.0 Entertainment co-finance the pic, but he was on set every day. Also, it was franchise producer Jerry Bruckheimer who first put Belgian filmmakers Adil and Bilall on the radar of Sony, Smith (who was a continual big voice about the script), et al.
Bad Boys For Life Review: Will Smith & Martin Lawrence Bring The Right Stuff To Long-Gestating Sequel
While $6.1M is nothing to brag about on Gretel & Hansel,the low overhead on the picture will leave minimal bleeding next to Rhythm Section (read on for that). The fantasy horror movie is looking at $2.5M today, including last nights $475K. Like last weekendsThe Turning,its another case of artsy genre pics simply not working at the box office. Horror fans hate those and this pics CinemaScore stands at C-. On PostTrak, the Sophia Lillis (It) movie drew 30% guys over 25, 29% women over 25, 25% women under 25, and 16% guys under 25. Very low grades overall here. Diversity make-up was 52% Caucasians, 21% Hispanic, 14% African Americans, and 10% Asian.
Largely a digital push here forGretel & Hanselaccording to RelishMix with a social media universe across YouTube, Facebook, Twitter, Instagram of 87.6M before opening, just ahead of the horror pic average of 82.1M thanks mostly to paid-buy support on YouTube says RelishMix.
The campaign for this title, similar to other January releases, was brief and to the point resulting in good activity. While the movies average daily new Facebook fans are only a few hundred, the score for YouTube activity is much higher. Gretel & Hansel is earning about 43.5K average daily YouTube views across its top clips which is ahead of the 27.7K benchmark for the horror genre, thanks to big paid-buy support from Orion over the past couple weeks.
However, despite Lillis push on her social media channels (2.2M across Instagram and Twitter), RelishMix says the online chatter for the film has plenty of snarky conversation making up the negative side, as in, you switch the names and thats supposed to be new? This side of the discussion claims this is another example of feminism entering their beloved genre, and its unnecessary even if these opinions are in the minority, there are enough in volume to call out here. As a side note, fans and non-fans poking fun at the title in switching other film titles has been fun to observe from King The Lion to Oz the Wizard.
Unfortunately, its official: Despite an earnest attempt here by 007 producers Barbara Broccoli and Michael Wilson to make a dark Euro noir, Rhythm Section will go down as Blake Livelys worst wide opening ever, lower than 2005s The Sisterhood of the Traveling Pants($9.8M).
Overall CinemaScore is C+ with a PostTrak exit of 2 1/2 stars and a lowly 35% definite recommend. Men over 25 came out at 45%, females over 25 at 36%, females under 25 showed up at 11% (and liked it the most at 81%), while guys under 25 repped 9% of all ticket buyers for the pic. Diversity breakdown was 60% Caucasian, 15% African American, 14% Hispanic, and 9% Asian.
With Paramount shelling out $30M for most of the world on this $50M production, the studio is going to get hurt here, as well as those who took foreign i.e. Germany. China I heard was initially taken by Daniel Tang, but then I heard there was a default on the rights in the wake of Global Road shuttering. So as of right now, the bank is trying to find a new distributor for China. Fridays figure looks to be $1.2M, including Thursday nights dismal $235K. Big upset here for Lively as shes been a dependable star of low-budget fare, i.e. A Simple Favor($97M+ WW box office) and The Shallows($119M).
The Rhythm Section Trailer: Blake Lively Takes No Prisoners In Revenge Thriller From James Bond Producers
Shes receiving praise for her turn as a British proper girl-turned-prostitute-turned assassin, but the problem is that Rhythm Sectionis boring Jason Bourne; aLa Femme Nikitaweve seen all too much before. Moviegoers agree with critics according to RelishMix which reports, Discussion on social for this movie is leaning negative, as the overall sentiment reflects an audience that has seen the bad-ass chick before, and there is little to nothing new here.
For reasonable action/adventure fans, they are asking two things that indicate their interest inRhythmSection is mild to nil. First, why do we need another super-spy/assassin female lead film as movies mentioned above have done it so well and this movie offers what exactly in freshness? Second, how and why is it reasonable in a real movie that a 100-pound woman can toss around 250-pound villains? Much the same sentiment was voiced for last falls Terminator installment, and suggests that this action is acceptable in a superhero film, but not this genre.
Lively broke her knuckle during production, which was then stopped for six months. Insurance took care of the cost gap, I hear. P&A at minimum here is $20M-$25M. No reason for Paramount to spend on this when it knew it was destined to die; this wasnt a scenario like Crawl, where the studio went thrifty, betting that the critics would deep-six a genre pic (turned out reviewers loved it at 83% certified fresh, even though Paramount didnt screen for them. Nonetheless, Crawlwas profitable for Par at $91.5M WW box office and $13.5M production cost; its just that it could have made much more). Rhythm Sectionwas supposed to come out a year ago, on Feb. 22. The pic was moved to Nov. 22, then moved again to this weekend. I understand the last release date push to this year for the film had to do with Lively being able to promote the film in the wake of welcoming her third child.
RelishMix also notes that the picscampaign started late, with the second look at the film debuting only last week which has been noted in conversation online. What RhythmSection lacks is the dazzling partnership or spot that has galvanized fans, says RelishMix. Despite the OK social media universe of 75.1M, which is under the average 90M for an action/adventure title, the key social metrics forRhythmSection offer a challenging look for a substantial opening weekend. The movie is adding a handful of new Facebook fans on a daily basis, and many of the video views on the platform are from the last couple weeks, often indicating a paid buy. As for average daily YouTube views, Rhythm is scoring a light 3.3K, which is far below the usual 14.2K for the genre.
Below Lively trying to push the film on Twitter:
Among notable specialty releases, theres Bleecker Streets Harvey Weinstein inspired dramaThe Assistant.The pic made its world premiere at Telluride and played Sundance last weekend. On four NY and LA screens, the pic did $18K on Friday night, and looks to make $63K for the weekend or $15,6K per screen off an 84% Certified Fresh score.
Watch our interview with star Julia Garner and director/writer Kitty Green out of Sundance here:
Below are industry estimates for Super Bowl weekend 2020:
1st Update, 9:26AM: All the action over Super Bowl weekend will be in the Hard Rock Stadium down in Miami, not at the box office.
Two wide entries will enter the marketplace, IM Global/Paramount/Eons Blake Lively R-rated femme assassin movie Rhythm Sectionand Orion/United Artists Releasings PG-13 fantasy horror Gretel & Hansel,but neither are expected to make any kind of excitement at the multiplex. Rhythm Section,which cost $50M before P&A, is expected to die according to tracking with a single digits gross over 3-days at 3,049 locations, while Gretel & Hansel could see $10M at 3,007 theaters in a weekend that will be ruled again by Sonys Bad Boys for Lifein its third go-round with $15.3M. If Hollywood is going to have any eyeballs this weekend, it will be for their movie trailers during the Big Game on Sunday.
Gretel & Hanseltook in $475K at 2,500 sites from showtimes that began at 7PM. Im told that the box office comparisons for the movie is Paramounts 2017 horror reboot Rings($800K) and 2018s CBS featureWinchesterwhich made $615K in previews both on the Thursdays before their Super Bowl weekend openings.Ringsopened to $13M, whileWinchesterdid $9.3M in its debut. Directed by Oz Perkins and written by Rob Hayes,Gretel & Hanselthe classic fairytale siblings as they venture into a dark wood in desperate search for food and work, only to stumble upon a nexus of terrifying evil. Rotten tomatoes score is at 59% Rotten which is better thanRhythm Sectionat 28% Rotten. The pic I hear cost around $10M before P&A, which is in the financial wheelhouse of Orions genre pics.
Last night off 7PM shows,Rhythm Sectionmade $235K from 2,256 theaters. Paramount shelled out $30M for domestic rights, and most foreign territories except for China and Germany. The pic reps the first big studio action film byThe Handmaids TaleEmmy winner Reed Morano who helmed the Sundance dystopian future pic I Think Were Alone Now, which made its premiere two years ago at Sundance, and the Olivia Wilde 2015 dramaMeadowland.Based on Mark Burnells drama,Rhythm Sectionfollows a woman who seeks revenge on those who killed her family in a plane crash.
Bad Boys for Lifemade an estimated $1.97M yesterday at 3,775 theaters in the top spot, even with Wednesdays gross, ending its second week with $43.7M and a running total of $130.3M. The pic is $8.3M away from besting the $138.6M lifetime domestic of 2003s Bad Boys II. The threequel continues to top Fandangos weekend sales with the online-mobile ticket retailer reporting that the Will Smith-Martin Lawrence movie is their best-selling title ever for the month of January (not counting December holdovers likeForce Awakens or Jumanji: Welcome to the Jungle).
Amblin/New Republic/Universals 1917, nominated for ten Oscars including Best Picture,ranked 2nd with an estimated $1.24M, -1% from Wednesday for a fifth week of $21.5M and running total of $109.6M.
STX/Miramaxs Guy Ritchie Brit action movieThe Gentlemanearned $790K in third, -3% from Wednesday, for a first week of $14.4M.
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Bad Boys For Life Scores Over Super Bowl Weekend With $17M+; Rhythm Section Is A Mess - Deadline
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Reviewed and Recommended by Erik Baquero