The Final Scramble Before the Iowa Caucuses – The New York Times

Senator Amy Klobuchar spoke at the Cedar Falls Womens Club on Saturday.Credit...Pete Marovich for The New York Times

DES MOINES Less than 48 hours from now, hundreds of thousands of Iowans will gather in schools and churches and libraries and gymnasiums, from the Mississippi River to the Missouri, and participate in the first nominating contest of the 2020 election.

At that point, all the candidates will be able to do is wait: for the verdict and, they hope, for one of those elusive tickets out of Iowa.

But for now, they are trying to make the most of the few hours in which their Iowa fates are still, sort of, in their hands.

A highly anticipated poll of Iowa Democrats, set to be released two days before the presidential caucuses, was shelved on Saturday night after complaints about irregularities in the methodology.

The concerns, raised by aides to former Mayor Pete Buttigieg, prompted CNN to cancel an hourlong special organized to release the results of the survey, conducted with the Des Moines Register.

David Chalian, CNNs political director, said on-air that CNN and The Register had decided out of an abundance of caution not to release the poll after the network learned of a potential problem with the way the survey was conducted.

The survey is considered the gold standard for polling in the notoriously hard-to-predict state and is carefully watched as an early indicator of strength in the caucuses.

CEDAR RAPIDS Bernie Sanders closed out his night with a huge concert in Cedar Rapids, featuring Vampire Weekend.

The arena was packed, with fog machines creating a delicate haze.

Mr. Sanders delivered his familiar stump speech, touching on Medicare for all, a $15 minimum wage, tuition-free public college and other progressive policies he has championed.

People have been demanding an agenda that works for workers, not just the 1 percent, he said. Thats what this campaign is about.

But if his remarks were routine, the atmosphere was not. The crowd was electric, cheering his every proposal. It has become a clich to describe his voice as booming, but it reverberated around the arena.

His was a campaign with energy on Saturday night. But not everyone who came to the event was there to see him.

Im here for the music and here for the party, said Doug Uridil, 48, a heating and air conditioning contractor from Cedar Rapids.

WATERLOO Former Vice President Joseph R. Biden Jr. lamented the actions of Senate Republicans who ensured that Mr. Trump would be acquitted in his Senate trial at his final event of the day.

Mr. Biden, who represented Delaware in the Senate for decades, said that he was proud to serve in that organization. One of the greatest honors of my life. But folks, its not the Congress I know. Not the Senate I know.

He referenced Republicans who have expressed concerns about Mr. Trumps actions that led to his impeachment, but have, in Mr. Bidens view, excused him anyway.

I find that kind of fascinating, he said.

Still, as he often does, Mr. Biden insisted that consensus was still possible.

The former vice president also went on a riff about American exceptionalism, praising the countrys diversity and saying that in contrast to other nations that may be defined by religion or ethnicity, America is defined by an idea.

And he revived a clash over health care, implicitly suggesting that Senator Bernie Sanderss far-reaching policy proposals and what Mr. Biden characterized as a lack of specificity around them amount to an electoral liability.

Good people on our team had these incredibly good ideas, he said. I wonder why they dont know how much its going to cost with Medicare for all. How much its going to cost to forgive all student debt.

Health care, in particular, has been a major flashpoint between Mr. Sanders, who champions Medicare for all, and Mr. Biden, who wants to add a public option to the health care system and to build on Obamacare.

"We have to beat Donald Trump, he said. And the one thing we cant do is end up not being straight with the American people. Hell eat you alive. Eat us alive. Tell it straight. Tell the people what its going to cost. Why its important.

DES MOINES CNN abruptly canceled a special Saturday night broadcast of the results of a new Des Moines Register poll of Iowa caucusgoers, according to a network official, after complaints from Pete Buttigiegs campaign that his name was not included in at least one of their telephone calls for its poll this week.

It was not immediately clear whether the results of the highly anticipated poll would be released.

The Register and CNN were expected to announce the results of the highly anticipated poll around 9 p.m. Eastern Saturday as part of a special broadcast on the cable channel. Shortly before 9 p.m., the CNN chyrons promoting the special were taken down, creating uncertainty about the polls release.

According to a senior official on Mr. Buttigiegs campaign, an Iowa supporter of Mr. Buttigieg received a poll phone call from an operator working for Ann Selzer, who runs the Registers famed Iowa Poll, but the name of the former mayor of South Bend, Ind., was not listed on the menu of candidate options.

This supporter then relayed what had happened to Mr. Buttigiegs campaign, which contacted Ms. Selzer about it. But the Buttigieg aide, who requested anonymity to discuss a private conversation, said the pollster offered little information about how many surveys the former mayor and one-time Iowa front-runner was left off.

Ms. Selzer did not immediately respond to an email regarding whether she still planned to release the survey.

Early Saturday evening, a researcher who works on the poll at Selzer & Company, the pollster, had said the poll was still going to be released and that there were no issues with the results.

CEDAR RAPIDS At Pete Buttigiegs campaign stops, the hard sell is an unsubtle reminder of another Midwesterner with an interesting name who won the hearts of Iowa Democrats.

The former mayor of South Bend, Ind., rarely mentions Barack Obama by name, but he doesnt have to. Like early adopters of a band that later became big, Iowa Democrats remain immensely proud, 12 years after Mr. Obama won an upset victory in the 2008 caucuses that propelled him to the White House.

Now Mr. Buttigieg and his key surrogates are laying it on thick, describing his candidacy as the second coming of Mr. Obama, needing only a victory in Mondays caucuses as the final piece before hes embraced by the rest of the country.

The great thing about Iowa is you have a knack for changing what people think is possible about presidential politics, he says at the close of his events. Iowa, he says, gave the rest of the country permission to believe that Mr. Obama could really win the presidency, and would do the same for him if he wins too.

Representative Dave Loebsack of Iowa, Mr. Buttigiegs highest profile endorser in the state, told the Saturday night crowd at hotel on the fast-growing outskirts of Cedar Rapids that Iowans could feel the same pride in picking Mr. Buttigieg as they do for Mr. Obama.

In December 2007 I decided to go with a pretty young guy who had a pretty funny name and he turned out pretty well as president, Mr. Loebsack said. Once I could stand in front of audiences and say, Pete Buttigieg, thats when I decided to go with him.

CEDAR FALLS Speaking at her third event of the day roughly 90 minutes from the Iowa-Minnesota border, Senator Amy Klobuchar of Minnesota boasted of her victories in the southern part of her state as an argument for her potential in the Iowa caucuses.

One issue that unites everyone is winning, she said in a crowded hall at the Womens Club here. This is my last pitch for you: Ive won every race, every place, every time.

She continued to list those places: the most rural districts, including the one bordering Iowa, by big margins. She pointed to carrying northern regions of the state currently represented by Republicans.

I even have won in Michele Bachmanns district, she proclaimed, much to the delight of the crowd.

Although, as she spoke of being a uniquely qualified Midwestern unifier Im the only candidate on that debate stage that asked to be on the Agriculture Committee she may have alienated a smaller segment of the voting population: sports marketers.

As she argued for reimagining education to meet jobs her administration would create, like nurses or electricians, Ms. Klobuchar added, We are not going to have a shortage of sports marketing degrees. She paused. I know that somebody here probably has one or has a kid that has one, so Ive lost your vote, she said. Im sorry.

DES MOINES Amid the campaigning and the schmoozing, the baby-kissing and hand-shaking, the political world prepared for a big arrival in Iowa on Saturday night.

No, its not another candidate jumping into the race. Or even a major surrogate (ahem, President Barack Obama).

Highly anticipated by campaigns, reporters and operatives, the final Des Moines Register/CNN survey is an annual rite of passage in the first-in-the-nation caucus state.

Iowans typically finalize their choices late in the campaign, often deciding whom to support in the days before the caucuses occur.

The late-breaking nature of the states political culture lends the poll outsized influence, with the power to fuel a last minute surge in the state or can be an early dirge for candidates who are struggling.

Last months release showed Senator Bernie Sanders of Vermont edging ahead of his Democratic rivals, with 20 percent, Senator Elizabeth Warren of Massachusetts at 17 percent, former Mayor Pete Buttigieg of South Bend, Ind., at 16 percent, and former Vice President Joseph R. Biden Jr. at 15 percent.

Many will be looking to see whether Mr. Sanders, who seems to have momentum heading into Monday evenings caucuses, has expanded his lead.

The poll, conducted by respected Iowa-based pollster J. Ann Selzer, is renowned for its ability to predict the notoriously unpredictable caucuses.

Her final poll in 2008 showed Barack Obama leading Hillary Clinton and then-Senator John Edwards, correctly anticipating a turnout surge that caught Ms. Clintons campaign by surprise.

This year, CNN is devoting an hour of breathless coverage to the polls release.

CEDAR RAPIDS As Former Vice President Joseph R. Biden Jr. neared the end of the rope line at his afternoon event here, shaking hands and taking pictures, he encountered Jaimee Warbasse, a hairstylist from Cedar Rapids who was still undecided.

Ms. Warbasse had been excited for Mr. Biden to enter the race and told him so, she recalled in an interview. She also told him that she hadnt made up her mind, and asked what he would say to sway voters like her.

If I havent swayed you today, then I cant sway you, Mr. Biden said.

Look, I never say anything I cant do, he added. Everything I say, Ive done, and everything I talk about is authentic. Now, if you dont like what Im talking about, I understand. You can be for somebody else. But ask yourself, who is going to be able to unite the country? How can Pete do that? How can Bernie do that? And so ask yourself that question.

Mr. Biden said that he trusted Ms. Warbasses judgment and encouraged her to pick whoever you feel in your heart and in your head.

He also took an implicit swipe at Senator Bernie Sanders of Vermont, suggesting that he exaggerates about how to pay for expansive policy proposals.

I do what I say and I dont lie, he said. I dont mislead. And I tell the truth about how much things are going to cost, and I tell you whos going to pay for it. And so if thats important, take a look at me. Id like to earn your vote.

It didnt work.

He 100 percent could have swayed me, and I was hoping that he would and he did not, Ms. Warbasse said after.

She had started the campaign skeptical of Mr. Sanders oh my God, he is too old, she said of her view at the time. But she said she found Mr. Bidens campaign message very generic.

She was also once interested in Senator Elizabeth Warren, but her exchange with Mr. Sanders on the debate stage last month over who was being truthful regarding a private conversation put a stain in my mouth.

If she cant handle that, I know she cant handle Trump, Ms. Warbasse said.

And so, after the Biden event here ended, she concluded that if she were caucusing today, it would probably be for Mr. Sanders.

DES MOINES If youre expecting a clear-cut result on Monday night this candidate won, this candidate was second, this one third you might want to adjust those expectations.

In past years, the Iowa Democratic Party reported only one set of numbers: how many delegates each candidate had won, a measure technically called state delegate equivalents, or S.D.E.s. But this year, they will report S.D.E.s alongside two other numbers: the first alignment (raw supporter totals at the beginning of the caucuses) and the final alignment (totals after nonviable candidates are eliminated and their supporters move to their second choices).

Technically, the delegates are still what counts. But campaigns will be able to use the first and final alignments to spin the results if they think those numbers make them look stronger, which means more than one candidate could leave Iowa claiming victory.

Most news organizations, including The New York Times, will use state delegate equivalents to declare a winner, and so will several campaigns. But representatives for two candidates Senator Bernie Sanders of Vermont and the former hedge fund executive Tom Steyer told us they considered the first alignment the most important measure.

While most of the Democratic field barnstormed Iowa on Saturday, former Mayor Michael R. Bloomberg of New York, who is not competing in the state, released a tax plan from afar.

His plan would raise roughly $5 trillion in new revenue from corporations and wealthy Americans, including by taxing an extra 5 percent on income over $5 million and increasing capital gains taxes for millionaires. But it is significantly less aggressive than many other candidates plans.

In particular, Mr. Bloomberg is not calling for a wealth tax, which Senator Bernie Sanders, Senator Elizabeth Warren and the former hedge fund executive Tom Steyer have all endorsed.

And while he called for repealing the 2017 Republican-backed tax cuts for wealthy Americans, he would only partly repeal the cuts given to corporations.

Mr. Bloomberg is not campaigning in the four early-voting states but he is polling as high as 10 percent nationally.

GRINNELL During a quick stop with supporters at a coffee shop, Senator Bernie Sanders of Vermont again emphasized his ability to beat President Trump in November but he did so lightheartedly.

There is a lot of discussion, as you know, about electability which candidate stands the best chance to defeat Donald Trump, he said. Lets do a scientific poll.

He urged those in attendance to raise their hands if they thought he was the strongest candidate.

After surveying the room, he declared himself the winner based on a deep analysis and investigation of the American electorate.

DUBUQUE The former mayor of South Bend, Ind., opened his remarks at Loras College on Saturday with a paean to his hosts, calling Dubuque a river city that reminds me of my own home.

Last summer during a stop in Mason City, he said his conversation with the mayor there had touched on job growth strategies. Its something that reminds me of home, he said.

And in July, he called Waterloo a community that very much reminds me of my home, a river town thats been up against a lot but is finding ways to grow in the 21st century.

Even in Allendale, S.C., when taking a question from a voter in December about how to bring jobs back to an economically depressed county that is 73 percent black, Mr. Buttigieg said, it reminds me of our community in a way, recalling what had happened in South Bend after the Studebaker auto company left town.

CEDAR RAPIDS Former Vice President Joseph R. Biden Jr., who had been delivering an animated version of his stump speech, was briefly knocked off course when someone needed medical attention.

After, he took a few minutes to get back into his rhythm, looking repeatedly at his notes. But he moved back into a more fiery mode as he sought to contrast President Trumps vision for the nation with his.

I dont believe were a nation that bows down to Vladimir Putin because I sure in hell heck will not, he declared.

He earned some of his loudest applause when he talked about taking on the National Rifle Association.

Throughout his speech, Mr. Biden pitched himself as the most experienced candidate in the race, emphasizing his record on matters including health care, climate change and guns.

Its not enough to make promises, he said, drawing an implicit contrast with several of his rivals. Youve got to keep them, but you also have to have a record to demonstrate youre able to get things done.

Mr. Biden drew a fired-up crowd to Cedar Rapids. But not everyone in the room was from Iowa. As has been the case at many campaign events across Iowa in recent days, attendees have come from outside the state to see the political show up close.

In addition to the Delaware delegation Mr. Biden introduced toward the start of the event, former Secretary of State John Kerry, who represented Massachusetts in the Senate, noted that there was a group present from his state.

Mr. Kerry also said that since his New England Patriots were not competing in the Super Bowl, he would be rooting for the Kansas City Chiefs on Sunday, a remark that got a mixed reception from the crowd.

BOONE A couple of hundred people packed a Mexican restaurant for Andrew Yang, who was running late.

Even though Mr. Yang may have difficulty reaching the 15 percent threshold required to earn delegates in many caucuses, his supporters seemed not to have settled on a second choice candidate to realign with in that scenario.

Im going to make up my mind on Monday, said A.J. Sorenson, who works in organic farming. He said the Yang campaign had not given its precinct leaders any guidance on this issue.

Logan Hull, a graduate student, said, I havent given that much thought. When pressed, he named Pete Buttigieg. His military experience caught my eye. I have friends in the military who have the same kind of analysis he did after the death of General Suleimani, he added, discussing the aftermath of the American drone strike that killed the Iranian security and intelligence commander in early January.

But Ann Bacon, who runs a nonprofit group, did quickly name a second choice: Bernie.

After Mr. Yangs signature universal basic income, she said her top issue was student debt. At 56, she was still in debt from her undergraduate degree.

Thats what did it," she said. I was a single mom as an undergrad, so student loans are what I lived on.

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The Final Scramble Before the Iowa Caucuses - The New York Times

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