Letters: Relying on herd immunity would let the zombies loose – The Advocate

Urging reliance on so-called "herd immunity" to deal with COVID-19 and reopen the economy is to advocate a life-or-death social and medical experiment that we will all be a part of, willingly or not. We don't know and we will not know for some time if catching COVID-19 confers immunity or, if it does, for how long.

Like any generalized concept, herd immunity is full of devilish details. For example, similar coronaviruses that cause the common cold and influenza are notorious for not conferring long-term immunity, partly because the genetics that make them infectious can readily mutate.

Every year, we are exposed to new versions against which we have no immunity. Until we know differently, common sense dictates that we assume COVID-19 will act the same way (and also temper overoptimism that a vaccine, which is an artificial way to confer immunity, will be the answer).

This uncertainty about individual immunity is a crucial point regarding herd immunity, because:

A. COVID-19 is much more deadly than flu it has killed more people in a few months than flu typically does in a whole year and

B. COVID-19 is more stealthy; is more infectious; seriously sickens more people and for a longer time; and, no matter what your age, it has more serious long-term aftereffects.

For these reasons, depending on herd immunity to solve the medical and economic crises will only prolong the epidemic, with more attendant personal and economic pain.

We currently live with moderately deadly influenza, against which we have no herd immunity, tolerating a disease that kills tens of thousands of Americans every year. Can we tolerate more deadly COVID-19 killing hundreds of thousands? What will a rolling plague like that do to our society?

The only way to get COVID-19 out of circulation is to isolate its carriers, because a virus infection is like a zombie Ponzi scheme: It needs a steady supply of people to keep reproducing. Reduce the number of opportunities for the virus to infect new hosts and eventually it will go extinct.

Presently, for valid psychological and economic reasons, the pressure is on to reopen society, but the only smart way to avoid more death and economic destruction is through widespread and reliable testing, contact tracing and quarantining of infected individuals and/or clearing of their infection with drugs. These steps are doable now and would allow us to reopen smartly.

They are what we should be demanding of our state and federal governments. If we reopen before we have such systems in place, we will be in for a long, miserable summer and probably much longer. Betting on herd immunity is like turning the zombies loose.

DENNIS LAVOIE

retired oceanographer

Mandeville

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Letters: Relying on herd immunity would let the zombies loose - The Advocate

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